The show host asked the interviewee how much oil reserves do we have. After much hemming and hawing, he finally answered: 50 years. It’s been a couple weeks since the conversation, so if I seem vague about the source, well, my attention span is sometimes limited.
But it got me to thinking. Without petroleum, where are we going to get power for our automobiles? Solar power, maybe. Automakers are working on electric motors. But, still, even with a power source, what are we going to use to keep the wheels and cogs oiled? Surely not butterfat. If solar or electric doesn’t work, then we go back to horse and buggy, but the problem of lubrication still exists. Buggy wheels don't self-lubricate.
I don’t think engines powerful enough for airplanes can be engineered with solar or electrical sources. Oh, yes, there’s nuclear power. Well, that source is probably limited, too. At least as far as our scientific knowledge goes today. Science fiction, notwithstanding!
Then it occurs to me that our huge cities are in trouble. Without petroleum products, no taxis, no inter-urbans, no local buses. No commutes.
And our large cities have skyscrapers with elevators to take us to the 200th floor. How do we keep the elevators running? They need lubrication, too. And, I know for sure, that NObody is going to walk up and back down 200 floors just to get to and from work. Hmmm. Looks like our cities are endangered. And the industries incorporated into those cities.
So now what do we do with all those six million or so people in Los Angeles? How do we get food to them? Food is hauled into cities by truck or train. And those conveyances need lubrication to operate. Farm machinery need lubrication to operate. We could go back to the mule and the plow, I suppose, but I hardly think that’s efficient on 1,000 acre plots. And that’s what it takes to feed large populations.
Aha! say the Luddites among us. And there are some. This is what we’ve been warning about all along. Too much mechanization. Too much dependence on “progress.” But the fact is, that’s where we are. So what do we do about it now?
As for the production of lubricants, suppose we could start raising cattle specifically for their rendered fat?
Is it possible, with billions of people on this planet for families to raise their own food? Somebody better start thinking about it.
Now, if that wasn’t enough to give me a headache, I just got the latest National Geographic. The main article was about global warming. Glaciers are melting. Large chucks of ice shelves are falling off into the oceans, north and south hemispheres. Climate is changing. Ocean water is changing in temperature and salinity, and these factors have a huge influence on climate. Ocean levels have risen to the point that some islands in the Pacific are in danger of being inundated within the next few years.
People make jokes about California falling off into the Pacific because of our earthquakes. It’s more likely that Nevada will end up with a seacoast more because of ocean levels rather than earthquakes. As a matter of fact, taking it another step, if the coastline of California disappears, wouldn’t that include Oregon and Washington, too?
Well, of course, we have the coastal mountain ranges that might, possibly, stop the incursion of the ocean that far into what is presently inland. Small comfort, that.
One conclusion of the National Geographic article was that we might well be going into another interglacial era. It has happened before. We have an ice age. Then the ice retreats and we have seasonal weather, then we have unusually hot weather, and the cycle is repeated. Fortunately, perhaps, for us, these interglacial periods take thousands of years.
Even so, I don’t think I’ll cling to the idea of living till I’m 120 years old. Another 10 maybe, and that’s it.
Shalom