Sep 022020
 

So – I have six days to get the garden ready for the first possible freeze of the year. I was SO hoping for a longer growing season, but instead the freeze is earlier than usual. We’re in the Moderate chance of a freeze.

My sense of overwhelm just went over the top. SO much to do to try and save our plants, in the hope we get another few weeks of growing time out of them. Oh well. I will do what I can.

Time to start antibiotics again, in the hope that I can feel well enough for a really hard couple of days of work on the 7th and 8th. Wish me luck!

Image may contain: text that says 'Risk of Hazardous Temperatures Valid: 09/08/2020-09/14/2020 **Experimental*** Slight 9/8/2020 9/12/2020 Excessive Heati High 3/8/2020-9/9/2020 9/9/2020 Excessive Heat Moderate /8/2020-9/10/2020 High 9/8/2020 9/9/2020 Moderate 9/8/2020 9/9/2020 Excessive Heat Slight 9/8/2020 9/14/2020 HAZARDS HAZARDSPOSTED POSTED Climate Prediction Center Made: 08/31/2020 HUn EDT Excessive Heat High 60%)il Much Below Normal Min. Temperatures - High (40%) Stight o Much Above Normal Max. Temperatures High (60%)Moderate(49%) Slight (20%) Follow us:'

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is forecasting a moderate to high risk of much-below normal temperatures on September 8 & 9 for much of the Northern to Central Great Plains region. In this high-risk area, there is a 60 percent chance of minimum temperatures falling to freezing or lower, and below the 15th percentile (that is, only 15 out of the past 100 years have seen colder temperatures on these dates; or said another way, the expected temperatures on Sept 8 & 9 will be lower than those observed in 85 out of the past 100 years during these same dates).On Sept 8, there is also a slight risk of high winds (gusts above 40mph) for the Great Plains, which could make temperatures feel even colder for humans, livestock, pets, etc.Regarding precipitation, NOAA CPC is not currently expecting any to accompany this cold-front. However, please check the weather forecast regularly as Sept 8 & 9 approaches, especially if you live or work at higher elevations where any precipitation that may fall (although not currently forecasted) could arrive as snow instead of rain.The map below shows which areas are at moderate to high risk of much-below normal temperatures. Note that areas shown as “high” risk are most likely to experience a freeze. For Nebraska, the Dakotas, and northeast Colorado if a freeze were to occur on Sept 8 or 9, this would be a couple of weeks earlier than normal.Please share this alert with any stakeholders whose crops, livestock, gardens, pets, irrigation systems, etc., might be vulnerable to an early freeze. Example concerns might include the following—this is not an exhaustive list, so please help identify any other possible concerns or vulnerabilities:

  • livestock still grazing in the high-country, which might try moving to lower elevations or elsewhere to seek shelter from the cold;
  • fall-calving operations with newborn or young animals, which might need additional shelter or insulation from the cold;
  • calves that are being weaned just ahead of or during the cold-snap on Sept 8 & 9 might experience higher levels of stress than normal;
  • livestock might have higher energy requirements during the cold-snap, especially those lacking a winter coat or already stressed from drought conditions;
  • pets that live outdoors or spend extended amounts of time outside, which might need additional food, shelter, or insulation from the cold;
  • cover crops or other fall-planted crops that germinate before the potential freeze on Sept 8 & 9 might suffer freeze-damage;
  • unharvested vegetables and fruits, and temperature-sensitive horticultural plants, might suffer freeze-damage;
  • irrigation systems that have not yet been drained might be at risk of freezing;
  • water hoses that have not been detached from outdoor spigots might be at risk of freezing and causing pipes to break;
  • other risks to crops, gardens, pets, livestock, and infrastructure not identified here.

To read the official NOAA CPC Hazard report, visit https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php.Between now and Sept 8 & 9, please consult your nearest NWS (National Weather Service) Forecast Office’s website regularly for short-range weather forecasts for your local area.Thank you for helping share this information with anyone who may face risks associated with much-below normal temperatures around Sept 8 & 9.
USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub Team

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